Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go (Gift Article)

This is a really helpful explanation about how the various sizes of the Blue Wave will effect the election from Nate Cohn, but I think it's wrong in one key way: States are not gerrymandered and candidate quality becomes exposed at a lower level. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

I repeat and repeat again: Prediction is not journalism (especially when you can't decide what to predict). Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go: Expectations are cresting for Democrats, and some kind of wave seems likely, but so much will depend on a few close Senate races. (Nate Cohn) 🎁Gift article: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

“To hold the Senate, Republicans merely need enough support and turnout…to prevent Democrats from taking states that Mr. Trump won by 13 points…This scenario does not require a major polling error.”

Here is a useful article from the NYTimes gaming out what might happen on Tuesday. #VUvotes26 Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

I think scenario 3 is the most likely, but I could see scenario 4 happening. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u... Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go (Gift Article) f the nyt

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go By Nate Cohen www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Expectations are cresting for Democrats, and some kind of wave seems likely, but so much will depend on a few close Senate races. Gift article: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

This is a more measured #Take from Nate 2 in other words he is not hi on his supply www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u... Nate offers 4 scenarios (unweighted) 2 in which Rs retain control of Senate and 2 in which #Democrats win the Senate. The #technical term for this measured forecast is a "fifty-fifty"

www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Zelo dober pregled možnih scenarijev: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...